Mikey 0, Swifties 1
The following originally appeared in The Washington Dispatch.
Michael Moore Bested by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
Editorial by CK Rairden
September 8, 2004
It used to be so easy for Michael Moore to generate publicity for his movie ‘Fahrenheit 911.’ Any move the anti-Bush filmmaker would make was documented by the old media and he was the toast of the angry left. To his credit, he parlayed that nicely into a very successful run at the box office.
The Republican National Convention should have given the filmmaker an opportunity for a bit of a buzz, and John McCain tried to help by chastising Moore while calling him a “disingenuous filmmaker.” Moore was very excited as he exited the convention and told the NY Daily News “Thank you, John McCain. The film’s doing $120 million right now. When McCain mentions it, I have a chance to do $150 million.”
Moore believed he was back.
But his box office dream fell flat according to Box Office Mojo. This weekend’s take for the film checked in at $358,748 and it finished at number 30 overall while showing on 245 screens. That brought the domestic total for ‘Fahrenheit 911.’ to $118,002,561. So Moore is now is desperately seeking more publicity.
Michael Moore told the AP, “(My) real Oscar would be Bush’s defeat on Nov. 2.” That dream appears to be drying up, so on Monday Michael Moore took to his website to try and stir things up a bit.
He released this statement, “I have decided not to submit “Fahrenheit 9/11” for consideration for the Best Documentary Oscar. If there is even the remotest of chances that I can get this film seen by a few million more Americans before Election Day, then that is more important to me than winning another documentary Oscar.”
Moore then told a story of a dinner meeting with a “with a well-known pollster who had often worked for Republicans.” The anonymous “well known pollster” told Moore, “The Bush White House left open a huge void when it came to explaining the war to the American people. And your film has filled that void—and now there is no way to defeat it. It is the atomic bomb of this campaign.”
Moore continued, “He told me how he had conducted an informal poll with “Fahrenheit 9/11” audiences in three different cities and the results were all the same.”Essentially, 80% of the people going in to see your movie are already likely Kerry voters and the movie has galvanized them in a way you rarely see Democrats galvanized.
“But, here’s the bad news for Bush: Though 80% going in to your movie are Kerry voters, 100% of those coming out of your movie are Kerry voters. You can’t come out of this movie and say, ‘I am absolutely and enthusiastically voting for George W. Bush.’”
100%! Wow--that sounds as reasonable as parts of “Fahrenheit 911.”
An earlier LA Times published poll showed some very different numbers. But then again—it wasn’t a ‘secret informal anonymous poll.’ It was published and surveyed 1,529 registered voters. The LA Times reported its findings on July 23rd, “Predictably, the vast majority of those who had seen the film — 92% — said they were planning to vote for Sen. John F. Kerry and Sen. John Edwards for president. Only 3% planned to vote for Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.” Add to that “Seventy-nine percent of those who had seen “Fahrenheit” said the film would not change their November votes; 18% said it made them more likely to vote against Bush; and 3% said it bolstered their resolve to vote for him.”
But keep in mind that 18% would have to come somewhere from the small minority of the 3%-8% that weren’t already in the Bush camp or undecided. Looks like Moore’s “atomic bomb is a bit of a dud as far as moving numbers in a presidential election.
But if you need the “atomic bomb” of this campaign you need to look no further that the anti-Kerry 527 group “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.” They don’t need anonymous pollsters as they have public polls that show that they not only moved Kerry’s numbers down, but they drove the Democratic presidential candidate into hiding. The blistering charges presented by the SwiftVets were so difficult for Kerry to handle that Kerry hasn’t done any public interviews in well over a month. His last public interview came a day after the Democratic National Convention.
The SwiftVets stopped any momentum for John Kerry with some powerful 30 second ads, and a meticulously researched best selling book titled “Unfit for Command.” John F. Kerry watched as his numbers and credibility plummeted, frightened to answer the charges and literally stunned for weeks. Michael Moore’s movie was unable to generate that effect on George W. Bush.
Moore had every advantage of the old media hyping his film, a built in bias from interviewers who gave him softball questions and he still failed to move the polls. Michael Moore understood that propaganda could sell his move and make him very famous and wealthy, but have done little to fulfill his fantasy of “Bush’s defeat on Nov. 2.” John O’Neill and the SwiftVets showed little concern for money and less for personal publicity and accolades from the public. They instead focused on their charges and stayed on message to destroy Kerry and attempt to get the American voter to believe their basic premise, that John Kerry is “unfit for command.”
Scoreboard: SwiftVets 1 Michael Moore 0.
Moore went after President George W. Bush with a blunt instrument, was a hero of the angry left and the darling of the old media, but did little, if anything to derail President Bush. But lead SwiftVet John O’Neill used a scalpel to go after John Kerry, all the while being despised and hated by the old media and the angry left. But his incisions into the Kerry campaign were precision like and left deep cuts and scars on the Kerry campaign and were considerably much more successful. The scars remain on the Kerry campaign to this day.
The net results; a bunch of Viet Nam veterans and the New Media bested Michael Moore and his Old Media pals at their own game.
CK Rairden is the National Editor of The Washington Dispatch.
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